How do individual companies respond to economic forces throughout the globe? One way to explore this is to see how well rates of return for stock of individual companies can be explained by stock market indexes that reflect particular parts of the world. Table 12.5.14 shows monthly rates of return for two companies, Microsoft (headquartered in the United States) and China Telecom (in China), along with three indexes: the Hang Seng (Hong Kong), the FTSE100 (London), and the S&P 500 (United States).
a. Run a multiple regression to explain percentage changes in Microsoft stock from those of the three indexes. Which indexes, if any, show a significant t test? Report the p-value of each of these t tests. Is this consistent with where Microsoft is headquartered?
b. Run a multiple regression to explain percentage changes in China Telecom stock from those of the three indexes. Which indexes, if any, show a significant t test? Is this consistent with where China Telecom is headquartered?
c. Run an ordinary regression to explain percentage changes in Microsoft stock from the Hang Seng Index only. Is the regression significant? Report the overall p-value of the regression.
d. Reconcile the results of parts a and c, focusing in particular on whether the Hang Seng Index is significant in each regression. You may use the interpretation that when an explanatory variable is significant in a multiple regression, it says that this variable brings additional information about the Y variable over and above that brought by the other explanatory X variables.
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TABLE 12.5.14 Monthly Rates of Return for Two Companies along with Stock Market Indexes from Different Parts of the World Date 4/1/2010 3/1/2010 2/1/2010 1/4/2010 12/1/2009 11/2/2009 10/1/2009 9/1/2009 8/3/2009 7/2/2009 6/1/2009 5/1/2009 4/1/2009 3/2/2009 2/2/2009 Microsoft China Telecom Hang Seng Index FTSE 100 Index S&P 500 Index 5.92% 4.32% 3.61% 5.88 2.85 5.39% 2.16 2.21 7.55 3.66 6.51 7.81 4.34 5.39 2.56% 6.07 3.20 11.32 7.26 -0.94 -6.82 1.07 3.06 2:42 -8.00 0.23 032 3.81 6.24 -4.13 11.94 1.14 17.07 14.33 5.97 -3.51 -4.15 -3.70 4.28 1.78 2.90 5.74 13.74 3.78 10.28 13.79 -4.93 -8.39 -0.69 4.48 4.56 -3.61 22.14 23.76 7.35 4.58 6.52 8.45 -3.82 4.10 8.09 2.51 3.57 3.36 7.41 0.02 5.31 939 8.54 -10.99 Continued) TABLE 12.5.14 Monthly Rates of Return for Two Companies along with Stock Market Indexes from Different Parts of the World-cont'd Microsoft China Telecom Hang Seng Index FTSE 100 Index S&P 500 Index 1/2/2009 12/1/2008 113/2008 10/2/2008 91/2008 8/1/2008 7/2/2008 6/2/2008 5/1/2008 4/1/2008 3/3/2008 2/1/2008 1/212008 12/3/2007 11/1/2007 10/1/2007 9/3/2007 8/1/2007 7/3/2007 6/1/2007 5/1/2007 4/2/2007 3/1/2007 2/1/2007 1 /2/2007 -12.06 -5.04 3.59 -0.58 -22.47 -15.27 -6.46 2.85 0.00 0.78 -8.85 -16.33 2.20 6.51 -6.50 -2.86 -033 -2.04 -10.71 -13.02 -13.81 -19.85 -6.45 0.28 -23.57 5.28 9.26 -16.94 9.08 1.22 -0.99 -8.60 3.80 -4.75 12.72 -6.09 0.56 6.76 4.75 4.37 -16.25 -8.44 -0.60 2.00 0.08 -3.34 -2.90 0.38 -0.86 -8.39 24.93 2.56 -0.58 -4.30 14.89 15.51 2.59 0.83 -2.46 9.97 13.89 135 -0.89 1.29 -3,20 5.52 1.55 2.62 -0.20 2.86 3.25 2.24 2.21 -0.51 -0.28 4.33 -8.39 -5.38 -2.26 334