Phoenix Corp. faltered in the recent recession but has recovered since. EPS and dividends have grown rapidly since 2017.

The figures for 2020 and 2021 are of course forecasts. Phoenix€™s stock price today in 2019 is $21.75. Phoenix€™s recovery will be complete in 2021, and there will be no further growth in EPS or dividends.
A security analyst forecasts next year€™s rate of return on Phoenix stock as follows:
r =DIV/P + g = 2.30/21.75 + .15 = .256, about 26%
What€™s wrong with the security analyst€™s forecast? What is the actual expected rate of return over the nextyear?

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2019 2.50 2.002.302.65 2017 2018 2.00 1.00 020 2021 $.75 2.60 EPS Dividends$0 Dividend growth 2.65 100% 15% 15%