Question: Refer to Exercise 5.35, but suppose that the projects are scheduled consecutively with A in the first year and B in the second year. The
Refer to Exercise 5.35, but suppose that the projects are scheduled consecutively with A in the first year and B in the second year. The company's chance of winning project A is still .50. Instead of the assumption of independence, now assume that if the company wins project A, its chance of winning B becomes .80 due to a boost of its image, whereas its chance drops to .40 in case it fails to win A. Under this premise, do parts (a)-(c).
In Exercise 5.35
A construction company submits bids for two projects. Listed here are the profit and the probability of winning each project. Assume that the outcomes of the two bids are independent.
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(a) List the possible outcomes (win/not win) for the two projects and find their probabilities.
(b) Let X denote the company's total profit out of the two contracts. Determine the probability distribution of X.
(c) If it costs the company $2000 for preparatory surveys and paperwork for the two bids, what is the expected net profit?
Chance of Winning Bid .50 65 Profit Project A Project B $175,000 $220,000
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