Repeat Problem except use the normal distribution for the CFAT in years 7 through 10 with an

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Repeat Problem except use the normal distribution for the CFAT in years 7 through 10 with an expected value of $2000 and a standard deviation of $500.

Carl, an engineering colleague, estimated net cash flow after taxes (CFAT) for the project he is working on. The additional CFAT of $2800 in year 10 is the salvage value of capital assets.

Year                         CFAT, $

0 ............                _28,800

1–6 ............                5,400

7–10 ..........               2,040

10 ...........                  2,800

The PW value at the current MARR of 7% per year is

PW = –28,800 + 5400(P/A, 7%, 6) + 2040(P/A, 7%, 4) (P/F, 7%, 6) + 2800(P/F, 7%, 10) = $2966

Carl believes the MARR will vary over a relatively narrow range, as will the CFAT, especially during the out years of 7 through 10. He is willing to accept the other estimates as certain. Use the following probability distribution assumptions for MARR and CFAT to perform a simulation—hand- or spreadsheet-based.

MARR. Uniform distribution over the range 6% to 10%.

CFAT, years 7 through 10. Uniform distribution over the range $1600 to $2400 for each year.

Plot the resulting PW distribution. Should the plan be accepted using decision making under certainty? Under risk?

Salvage Value
Salvage value is the estimated book value of an asset after depreciation is complete, based on what a company expects to receive in exchange for the asset at the end of its useful life. As such, an asset’s estimated salvage value is an important...
MARR
Minimum Acceptable Rate of Return (MARR), or hurdle rate is the minimum rate of return on a project a manager or company is willing to accept before starting a project, given its risk and the opportunity cost of forgoing other...
Distribution
The word "distribution" has several meanings in the financial world, most of them pertaining to the payment of assets from a fund, account, or individual security to an investor or beneficiary. Retirement account distributions are among the most...
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Engineering economy

ISBN: 978-0073376301

7th Edition

Authors: Leland Blank, Anthony Tarquin

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