Some electronic devices are better used than new: The failure rate is higher when they are new than when they are six months old. For example, half of the personal music players of a particular brand have a flaw. If the player has the flaw, it dies in the first six months. If it does not have this flaw, then only 10% fail in the first six months. Yours died after you had it for three months. What are the chances that it has this flaw?