Using the TGT Quarterly Sales (Target Corp.) data: a. Fit the sales data using the Holt-Winters Additive

Question:

Using the TGT Quarterly Sales (Target Corp.) data:

a. Fit the sales data using the Holt-Winters Additive Seasonal model, and optimize the smoothing constants with the Solver.

b. Use the Forecast Sheet button to create a forecast worksheet.

c. Which model performs better based on the MSE?


Data from Target Corp.

Target Corporation Quarterly Revenue and Net Income





Report DateFiscal YearFiscal QuarterRevenueNet Income
4/30/20062006112,863554
7/31/20062006213,347609
10/31/20062006313,570506
1/31/20072006419,7101,119
4/30/20072007114,041651
7/31/20072007214,620686
10/31/20072007314,835483
1/31/20082007419,8711,028
4/30/20082008114,802602
7/31/20082008215,472634
10/31/20082008315,114369
1/31/20092008419,560609
4/30/20092009114,833522
7/31/20092009215,067594
10/31/20092009315,276436
1/31/20102009420,181936
4/30/20102010115,593671
7/31/20102010215,532679
10/31/20102010315,605535
1/31/20112010420,6611,035
4/30/20112011115,935689
7/31/20112011216,240704
10/31/20112011316,402555
1/31/20122011421,288981
4/30/20122012116,867697
7/31/20122012216,779704
10/31/20122012316,929637
1/31/20132012422,726961
4/30/20132013116,706498
7/31/20132013217,117611
10/31/20132013317,258341
1/31/20142013421,515520
4/30/20142014117,050418
7/31/20142014217,406234
10/31/20142014317,732352
1/31/20152014421,751960
4/30/20152015117,119651
7/31/20152015217,427773
10/31/20152015317,613476
1/31/20162015421,6261,421
4/30/20162016116,196614
7/31/20162016216,169625
10/31/20162016316,441608
1/31/20172016420,690821
4/30/20172017116,017677
7/31/20172017216,429671
10/31/20172017316,667478
1/31/20182017422,7661102
4/30/20182018116,781717
7/31/20182018217,776799
10/31/20182018317,821616
1/31/20192018422,977798










Source: FactSet. Retieved on 5/13/2019

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