Freelance reporter Irwin Fletcher is examining the historical voting records of members of the U.S. Congress. For 175 representatives, Irwin has collected the voting record (yes or no) on 16 pieces of legislation. To examine the relationship between representatives’ votes on different issues, Irwin has conducted an association rules analysis with a minimum support of 40% and a minimum confidence of 90%.

The data included the following bills:

Budget: approve federal budget resolution Contras: aid for Nicaraguan contra rebels El_Salvador: aid to El Salvador Missile: funding for M-X missile program Physician: freeze physician fees Religious: equal access to all religious groups at schools Satellite: ban on anti-satellite weapons testing The following table shows the top five rules with respect to lift ratio. The table displays representatives’ decisions in a “bill-vote” format. For example, “Contras-y”

indicates that the representative voted yes on a bill to support the Nicaraguan Contra rebels and “Physician-n” indicates a no vote on a bill to freeze physician fees.

a. Interpret the lift ratio of the first rule in the table.

b. What is the probability that a representative votes no on El Salvador aid given that they vote yes to aid to Nicaraguan Contra rebels and yes to the M-X missile program?

c. What is the probability that a representative votes no on El Salvador aid given that they vote no to the M-X missile program and yes to equal access to religious groups in schools?

d. What is the probability that a randomly selected representative votes yes on El Salvador aid?

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Antecedent Consequent Support of A&C Confidence Lift Ratio Contras-y, Physician-n, Satellite-y El_Salvador-n 0.40 0.95 1.98 Contras-y, Missile-y El_Salvador-n 0.40 0.91 1.91 Contras-y, Physician-n El_Salvador-n 0.44 0.91 1.90 Missile-n, Religious-y El_Salvador-y 0.40 0.93 1.90 Budget-y, Contras-y, Physician-n El_Salvador-n 0.41 0.90 1.89