In problem 17.16 on page 693, an author is deciding which of two competing publishing companies to select to publish her new novel. Before making a final decision, the author decides to have an experienced reviewer examine her novel. This reviewer has an outstanding reputation for predicting the success of a novel. In the past, for novels that sold 1,000 copies only 1%

received favourable reviews. Of novels that sold 5,000 copies 25% received favourable reviews. Of novels that sold 10,000 copies 60% received favourable reviews. Of novels that sold 50,000 copies 99% received favourable reviews. After examining the author’s novel, the reviewer gives it an unfavourable review.

a. Revise the probabilities of the number of books sold in light of the reviewer’s unfavourable review.

b. Use these revised probabilities to redo problem 17.16.

c. Compare the results in

(b) with the original results of problem 17.16.