Skodel Ltd is considering investing into technology stocks. As a test case, it looked at Microsoft-adjusted monthly closing values of stocks between 1 March 2001 and 1 August 2008. The time series is given in Table 9.15

Use the exponential smoothing method and experiment with various levels of the smoothing constant. See what impact it has on your forecasts and how it changes the forecasting errors. Make a recommendation as to what approach to forecasting you would use and why.

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26.21 25.72 27.51 28.32 28.42 28.28 27.1 32.35 35.33 33.35 36.41 29.14 28.42 28.58 29.05 Table 9.15 30.25 29.42 27.38 27.68 30.22 29.24 28.75 28.02 26.69 25.08 23.39 22.65 22.02 23.39 26.35 26.02 27.17 25.24 26.72 24.73 24.76 26.35 24.57 23.83 24.76 24.2 23.12 24.07 25.06 25.48 25.57 23.93 23.66 23.36 24.3 24.36 22.38 22.29 21.27 22.63 23.59 23.35 21.93 22.3 23.58 22.5 22.4 21.75 20.88 21.69 20.54 20.1 20.07 21.86 24.39 22.61 18.49 20.75 20.29 23.13 21.52 22.09 25.5 24.67 26.94 28.01 27.15 24.59 21.63 24.12 27.98 30.86 29.25 28.64 23.12