Sampling variability. In thinking about Gallup’s sample of size 2527, we asked, “Could it happen that one random sample finds that 51% of adults favor an amendment and a second random sample finds that only 37% favor one?” Look at Figure 3.2, which shows the results of 1000 samples of this size when the population truth is p = 0.5, or 50%. Would you be surprised if a sample from this population gave 51%? Would you be surprised if a sample gave 37%?

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