Question: Using the monthly data in VOLAT, the following model was estimated: pcip 5 1.54 1 .344 pcip21 1 .074 pcip22 1 .073 pcip23 1 .031
Using the monthly data in VOLAT, the following model was estimated:
pcip 5 1.54 1 .344 pcip21 1 .074 pcip22 1 .073 pcip23 1 .031 pcsp21 1.562 1.0422 1.0452 1.0422 1.0132 n 5 554, R2 5 .174, R2 5 .168, where pcip is the percentage change in monthly industrial production, at an annualized rate, and pcsp is the percentage change in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, also at an annualized rate.
(i) If the past three months of pcip are zero and pcsp21 5 0, what is the predicted growth in industrial production for this month? Is it statistically different from zero?
(ii) If the past three months of pcip are zero but pcsp21 5 10, what is the predicted growth in industrial production?
(iii) What do you conclude about the effects of the stock market on real economic activity?
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