Suppose that it is initially believed that the object is in box i with probability 0.2, 0.3 and 0.5, for i = 1, 2, 3. One always searches the box with the highest current probability; thus one would begin with box 3. If the first search fails, which box should be searched next? What do you think of the ‘solution’: multiplying the prior probability of box 3, i.e. 0.5, by the probability of not finding it if it were there, 0.3, gives