Red Lion Hotels ran full-page advertisements claiming “For every 50 business travelers who try Red Lion, a certain number don’t come back. But 49 of 50 do.” The basis for this claim was a survey of people staying at Red Lion, 98 percent of whom said “they would usually stay in a Red Lion Hotel when they travel.” Use a numerical example to help explain why the survey results do not prove the advertising claim.

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Month Married Fraction of Divorces Month Married Fraction of Divorces January February 0.064 July 0.087 0.068 August 0.103 March 0.067 September 0.090 April 0.073 October 0.078 May 0.080 November 0.079 June 0.117 December 0.087