The current value of a stock portfolio is $23 million. A financial analyst summarizes the uncertainty about next year’s holding period return using the scenario analysis in the following spread sheet. What are the holding-period returns of the portfolio in each scenario? Calculate the expected holding-period return and the standard deviation of returns.

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1 Business conditions 2 High growth 3 Normal growth 4 No growth 5 Recession B Scenario, s 1 2 3 4 Probability, p 0.30 0.45 0.20 0.05 End-of-year value ($ million) 35 27 15 8 E Annual dividend ($ million) 4.40 4.00 4.00 2.00