Question: Let us consider an array of continuously compounded spot interest rates for time periods of one year: Say that no increase is expected and If

Let us consider an array of continuously compounded spot interest rates for time periods of one year:


r(0,1), (1,2), r(2,3), (3,4),...


Say that no increase is expected and


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If the risk premium is


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Then, the term structure is an average of forward rates,


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which in this specific case yields 


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Thus, we observe an increasing term structure, even though there is no expected increase in the spot rates.
It may even happen that an increasing term structure results from decreasing expected spot rates, if the liquidity premium is increasing. For instance, let us consider 

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and

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Then, in this case, we find 


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and

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The resulting term structure is increasing, even though rates are expected to drop.

r(0,1), (1,2), r(2,3), (3,4),...

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