Question: 18. Table P-18 contains data values that represent the monthly sales (in billions of dollars) of all retail stores in the United States. Using the

18. Table P-18 contains data values that represent the monthly sales (in billions of dollars) of all retail stores in the United States. Using the data through 1994, perform a decomposition analysis of this series. Comment on all three components of the series. Forecast retail sales for 1995 and compare your results with the actual values provided in the table.

TABLE P-16 Quarter Year 1 2 3 4 1980 218.1 245.4 265.5 203.5 1981 235.1 258.0 308.4 211.8 1982 247.7 275.8 295.0 270.1 1983 315.7 358.5 363.0 302.2 1984 407.3 483.3 463.2 426.5 1985 451.5 546.9 590.4 504.2 1986 592.4 647.9 726.4 755.5 1987 766.4 819.4 630.1 734.6 1988 774.5 915.7 1,013.4 1,043.6 1989 1,037.9 1,167.6 1,345.1 1,288.2 1990 1,303.8 1,539.5 1,712.2 1,492.4 1991 1,439.0 1,511.6 1,739.4 1,936.6 1992 1,655.1 1,853.5 2,079.1 2,391.4 1993 2,026.5 1,936.8 2,174.5 2,727.3 1994 2,275.8 2,353.6 2,698.4 3,301.7 1995 2,922.8 2,764.0 3,123.6 TABLE P-17 Month 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 January 15.5 20.4 26.9 36.0 52.1 64.4 82.3 102.7 122.2 145.8 170.0 February 17.8 20.8 29.4 39.0 53.1 68.1 83.6 102.2 121.4 144.4 176.3 March 18.1 22.2 29.9 42.2 56.5 68.5 85.5 104.7 125.6 145.2 174.2 April 20.5 24.1 32.4 44.3 58.4 72.3 91.0 108.9 129.7 148.6 176.1 May 21.3 25.5 33.3 46.6 61.7 74.1 92.1 112.2 133.6 153.7 185.3 June 19.8 25.9 34.5 46.1 61.0 77.6 95.8 109.7 137.5 157.9 182.7 July 20.5 26.1 34.8 48.5 65.5 79.9 98.3 113.5 143.0 169.7 197.0 August 22.3 27.5 39.1 52.6 71.0 86.7 102.2 120.4 149.0 184.2 216.1 September 22.9 25.8 39.0 52.2 68.1 84.4 101.5 124.6 149.9 163.2 192.2 October 21.1 29.8 36.5 50.8 67.5 81.4 98.5 116.7 139.5 155.4 November 22.0 27.4 37.5 51.9 68.8 85.1 101.1 120.6 147.7 168.9 December 22.8 29.7 39.7 55.1 68.1 81.7 102.5 124.9 154.7 178.3 TABLE P-18 Month 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 January 113.6 122.5 132.6 130.9 142.1 148.4 154.6 167.0 February 115.0 118.9 127.3 128.6 143.1 145.0 155.8 164.0 March 131.6 141.3 148.3 149.3 154.7 164.6 184.2 192.1 April 130.9 139.8 145.0 148.5 159.1 170.3 181.8 187.5 May 136.0 150.3 154.1 159.8 165.8 176.1 187.2 201.4 June 137.5 149.0 153.5 153.9 164.6 175.7 190.1 202.6 July 134.1 144.6 148.9 154.6 166.0 177.7 185.8 194.9 August 138.7 153.0 157.4 159.9 166.3 177.1 193.8 204.2 September 131.9 144.1 145.6 146.7 160.6 171.1 185.9 192.8 October 133.8 142.3 151.5 152.1 168.7 176.4 189.7 194.0 November 140.2 148.8 156.1 155.6 167.2 180.9 194.7 202.4 December 171.0 176.5 179.7 181.0 204.1 218.3 233.3 238.0 TABLE P-19 Month Adjusted Seasonal Index Month Adjusted Seasonal Index January 120 July 153 February 137 August 151 March 100 September 95 April 33 October 60 May 47 November 82 June 125 December 97

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