9. The yield on a general obligation bond for the city of Davenport fluctuates with the market. The monthly quotations for 2006 are given in Table P-9.

Month Mutual Fund Price January 19.39 February 18.96 March 18.20 April 17.89 May 18.43 June 19.98 July 19.51 August 20.63 September 19.78 October 21.25 November 21.18 December 22.14 Time Period Yt Y N t et 1 200 200 — 2 210 — — 3 215 — — 4 216 — — 5 219 — — 6 220 — — 7 225 — — 8 226 — —

Month Yield January 9.29 February 9.99 March 10.16 April 10.25 May 10.61 June 11.07 July 11.52 August 11.09 September 10.80 October 10.50 November 10.86 December 9.97

a. Find the forecast value of the yield for the obligation bonds for each month, starting with April, using a three-month moving average.

b. Find the forecast value of the yield for the obligation bonds for each month, starting with June, using a five-month moving average.

c. Evaluate these forecasting methods using the MAD.

d. Evaluate these forecasting methods using the MSE.

e. Evaluate these forecasting methods using the MAPE.

f. Evaluate these forecasting methods using the MPE. g. Forecast the yield for January 2007 using the better technique. h. Write a memo summarizing your findings.