Question: Construct a table similar to Table P-14 with the natural logarithms of monthly sales. For example, the value for January 1996 is In(154) = 5.037.

Construct a table similar to Table P-14 with the natural logarithms of monthly sales. For example, the value for January 1996 is In(154) = 5.037.

a. Perform an additive decomposition of In(sales) assuming the model Y=T+S+1.

b. Would you use the trend, seasonal, or both components to forecast?

c. Provide forecasts of In(sales) for the remaining months of 2002.

d. Take the antilogs of the forecasts calculated in part c to get forecasts of the actual sales for the remainder of 2002.

e. Compare the forecasts in part d with those in Problem 14c. Which set of forecasts do you prefer? Why?

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