Question: Global mean surface temperature deviations (from the 1951--1980 average level) are available for the period 1880--2009 as series gtemp2 in the astsa package in R.

Global mean surface temperature deviations (from the 1951--1980 average level) are available for the period 1880--2009 as series ’gtemp2’ in the astsa package in R.

(a) Plot the data and comment. Are there any unusual features worth noting?

(b) Perform a statistical analysis to determine a suitable model for this series. Estimate the parameters using the maximum likelihood method.

(c) Is there evidences of any lack of fit in the models selected for this series?

(d) Can you suggest an alternative way to analyze this time series? How might an analysis of model generated forecasts impact your choice of model?

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