Question: Plot the data presented in Exercise 7 to examine the possible existence of trend and seasonality in the data. Prepare three separate exponential smoothing models

Plot the data presented in Exercise 7 to examine the possible existence of trend and seasonality in the data.

  1. Prepare three separate exponential smoothing models to forecast the full-service restaurant sales data using the monthly data.
  2. Prepare three separate exponential smoothing models to forecast the full-service restaurant sales data using the monthly data.
  3. Examine the accuracy of each model by calculating the mean absolute percentage error for each during the historical period. Explain carefully what characteristics of the original data led one of these models to have the lowest MAPE.

Data from Exercise 7

Date

Sales (000,000)


Date

Sales (000,000)


Date

Sales (000,000)


Date

Sales (000,000)

Jan-02

6910


Aug-05

9035


Feb-09

9515


Sep-12

11743

Feb-02

6959


Sep-05

8271


Mar-09

10385


Oct-12

12129

Mar-02

7268


Oct-05

8328


Apr-09

10571


Nov-12

12003

Apr-02

7023


Nov-05

7987


May-09

10792


Dec-12

12794

May-02

7555


Dec-05

8383


Jun-09

10553


Jan-13

11811

Jun-02

7021


Jan-06

7532


Jul-09

11083


Feb-13

11523

Jul-02

7297


Feb-06

7943


Aug-09

10939


Mar-13

12957

Aug-02

7558


Mar-06

8685


Sep-09

10297


Apr-13

12423

Sep-02

6945


Apr-06

8502


Oct-09

11056


May-13

13741

Oct-02

7464


May-06

8977


Nov-09

10229


Jun-13

13250

Nov-02

7138


Jun-06

8716


Dec-09

10703


Jul-13

13673

Dec-02

7355


Jul-06

8978


Jan-10

10092


Aug-13

14329

Jan-03

6854


Aug-06

9548


Feb-10

10532


Sep-13

12465

Feb-03

6699


Sep-06

8675


Mar-10

11464


Oct-13

13026

Mar-03

7324


Oct-06

9032


Apr-10

11240


Nov-13

12606

Apr-03

7514


Nov-06

9005


May-10

11393


Dec-13

13281

May-03

7898


Dec-06

8921


Jun-10

11332


Jan-14

12953

Jun-03

7814


Jan-07

8688


Jul-10

11752


Feb-14

12926

Jul-03

8049


Feb-07

8640


Aug-10

11581


Mar-14

13709

Aug-03

8322


Mar-07

9592


Sep-10

11257


Apr-14

13324

Sep-03

7730


Apr-07

9332


Oct-10

11447


May-14

14042

Oct-03

8049


May-07

9976


Nov-10

10742


Jun-14

13669

Nov-03

7449


Jun-07

9460


Dec-10

11372


Jul-14

14572

Dec-03

7774


Jul-07

10071


Jan-11

10726


Aug-14

14149

Jan-04

6998


Aug-07

10517


Feb-11

10691


Sep-14

13268

Feb-04

7275


Sep-07

9539


Mar-11

11919


Oct-14

13918

Mar-04

8177


Oct-07

9850


Apr-11

11312


Nov-14

12992

Apr-04

8143


Nov-07

9227


May-11

12002


Dec-14

14312

May-04

8364


Dec-07

9699


Jun-11

12191


Jan-15

13202

Jun-04

8292


Jan-08

9147


Jul-11

12374


Feb-15

13260

Jul-04

8689


Feb-08

9114


Aug-11

12797


Mar-15

14359

Aug-04

8661


Mar-08

9972


Sep-11

11292


Apr-15

14368

Sep-04

8080


Apr-08

9825


Oct-11

11523


May-15

14687

Oct-04

8264


May-08

10423


Nov-11

11259


Jun-15

14445

Nov-04

7822


Jun-08

10203


Dec-11

12596


Jul-15

15142

Dec-04

8352


Jul-08

10458


Jan-12

11520


Aug-15

14905

Jan-05

7507


Aug-08

10541


Feb-12

11414


Sep-15

13982

Feb-05

7341


Sep-08

9844


Mar-12

12696


Oct-15

14575

Mar-05

8243


Oct-08

10455


Apr-12

12140


Nov-15

13838

Apr-05

8269


Nov-08

9715


May-12

12857


Dec-15

15478

May-05

8615


Dec-08

10338


Jun-12

12685




Jun-05

8549


Jan-09

9583


Jul-12

12873




Jul-05

8902





Aug-12

13357




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