Question: Theil's U-statistic (a compromise between absolute and relative Theil's U measures) is very useful. In row 1, U = 1:81, indicating a poor t, far

Theil's U-statistic (a compromise between absolute and relative Theil's U measures) is very useful. In row 1, U = 1:81, indicating a poor

¯t, far worse than the aÄ³ve model," which would simply use last period's observation as the forecast for the next period. In row 3 the SES model is seen to be about as good as the naÄ³ve model. Row 8 shows Pegels' cell B-3 model to be far superior

(U = 0:25).

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