Is there a “path” to success? Brookings scholars Ron Haskins and Isabel Sawhill suggest the path to success is: education, followed by work, followed by marriage, followed by children. Sociologists Wendy Wang and W. Bradford Wilcox tracked a cohort of young millennial adults from their teenage years to early adulthood (ages 28 to 34) and recorded information about their education, marital status, child-rearing, and income.
(a) Why is this a cohort study?
(b) According to the article, 53% of millennials who had failed to complete the path to success were below the poverty rate. Express this as a conditional probability.
(c) The article states that 31% of millennials who completed high school were below the poverty rate; 16% of millennials who had a high school diploma and a full-time job were below the poverty rate; and 3% of millennials who had a high school diploma, a full-time job, and put marriage before having children were below the poverty rate. Express each of these probabilities as a conditional probability.
(d) Among those from low-income backgrounds, 80% made it to middle- or upper-income when they followed the path to success while only 44% made it to middle- or upper income when they missed at least one stage in the path to success. Express each of these probabilities as a conditional probability.
(e) According to researchers at Payscale.com, among those from low-income backgrounds in early adulthood, 28% make it to middle- or upper-income by mid-life. Do you believe that upward mobility and the “path to success” are independent? Explain.