5. Use the data from problem 4.

a. Develop a 3-year simple moving average forecast (starting in year 4).

b. Develop a weighted moving average forecast using the weights 0.5 and 0.5.

c. Develop an exponential smoothing forecast using a forecast of 74,000 visits for year 1 and α = 0.7.

d. Develop a trend-adjusted exponentially smoothed forecast using an initial forecast of 74,000 visits for year 1 and an initial trend adjustment of 0.5. The smoothing constants selected are α = 0.7 and β = 0.4.

e. Compute the MSE for each one of the aforementioned methods (disregard the first data point for the exponential smoothing and trend-adjusted exponential smoothing models). Based on your results, which forecasting method would yield the best results? Using that method, what is the forecast for next year?