Question: Consider the time series data shown in Table E4.3. a. Make a time series plot of the data. b. Use simple exponential smoothing with A.

Consider the time series data shown in Table E4.3.

a. Make a time series plot of the data.

b. Use simple exponential smoothing with A. = 0.1 to smooth the first 30 time periods of this data. How well does this smoothing procedure work?

c. Make one-step-ahead forecasts of the last 20 observations. Determine the forecast errors.

d. Plot the forecast errors on a control chart for individuals. Use a moving range chart to estimate the standard deviation of the forecast errors in constructing this chart. What conclusions can you draw about the forecasting procedure and the time series?

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