Question: Consider a 22 table of multinomial probabilities that models how subjects respond on two separate occasions. First Trial Second Trial A B A p11 p12

Consider a 2×2 table of multinomial probabilities that models how subjects respond on two separate occasions.

First Trial Second Trial A B A p11 p12 B p21 p22 Show that Pr(A Second Trial |B First Trial ) = Pr(B Second Trial |A First Trial )

if and only if the event that a change occurs between the first and second trials is independent of the outcome on the first trial.

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