Question: Explain how worrying about mere possibilities while ignoring probabilities can result in people making decisions that not only fail to satisfy social interest, but also
Explain how “worrying about mere possibilities while ignoring probabilities” can result in people making decisions that not only fail to satisfy social interest, but also fail to satisfy self-interest.
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Making decisions based on mere possibilities often leads to inefficient or irrational choices This comes from a common cognitive bias where individuals estimate the likelihood of an event based on how readily examples of that event come to mind This bias known as the availability heuristic can lead people to overestimate the probability of highly publicized or dramatic events while underestimating the likelihood of more common but mundane events For example someone might worry about dying in a plane crash a mere possibility but pretty unlikely and therefore choose to travel by car which statistically speaking is more dangerous thereby ignoring the probability This decision not only fails to satisfy social interest statistics show that air travel is much safer than car travel and also much more environmentally friendly but also doesnt satisfy selfinterest since the person is in greater danger during their journey This can also result in individuals diverting critical resources from immediate or highly probable threats to guard against remote possibilities For example governments might spend enormous sums of money defending against unlikely terrorist attacks while neglecting to invest adequately in public health or education Though this decision might give a sense of safety it doesnt genuinely boost collective welfare or personal wellbeing The diverted resources could lead to deficits in other critical areas causing greater harm in the long run These decisions become even more irrational when theyre made on behalf of others A persons unlikely fears might not align with those of the broader community leading to decisions that neither satisfy the public interest nor provide the feardriven individual ... View full answer
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