The U.S. unemployment rate increased from 4.6% in July 2001 to 5.9% by June 2002. Without studying

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The U.S. unemployment rate increased from 4.6% in July 2001 to 5.9% by June 2002. Without studying the subject in any detail, would you expect that a change of this kind is more likely to be due to cyclical unemployment or a change in the natural rate of unemployment? Why?

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