The figure above is from Tigchelaar et al. (2018) and shows changes in yield variability of corn (maize) yields in the four highest maize-producing countries in the world (Argentina, Brazil, China, and the US) under present-day conditions (black) 2 degrees of warming (blue) and 4 degrees of warming (red)*. The x-axes show the yield anomalies compared to the present-day average yield (= 0). The vertical gray line marks a yield reduction of 20% compared to the present day. The y-axes denote "density." You can think of this as the likelihood of a given yield. A high value on the y-axis denotes a higher likelihood of a given yield on the x-axis. The numbers in the boxes show the average yield under each of the three scenarios, reported in how many tons of maize can be harvested in a given hectare of farmland (1 hectare = 10,000 m2) The horizontal gray line near the bottom of the graph marks "zero" density--or a likelihood of zero that this yield anomaly will occur. First, compare the boxed values (the average maize yields under the three scenarios). The US is expected to see the largest decline in average yields as the temperature warms. Under