$0$

Instructions: $-$ Points$)$ Answer the following questions to the best of your ability.

$1$ The data to the right comes from a fictional resort in Cancuun Mexico. The data represents the occupancy rate for the $12$ months of $2023$

a$.(3$ points$)$ Forecast the occupancy rate for January $2024$ using simple exponential smoothing with $a=0,3.$ Assume that the forecast for February is $92\%.$

b$.(3$ points$)$ Forecast the occupancy rate for January $2024$ using simple exponential smoothing with $a=0\mathrm{.}4.$ Assume that the forecast for February is $92\%.$

c$.(4$ points$)$ Construct the mean absolute deviation, MAD, and mean squared

$\backslash$table$[[$Month$,\backslash$table$[[$Occupancy$],[$Rate in $\%]]],[$January$,92],[$February$,71],[$March$,73],[$April$,75],[$May$,90],[$June$,90],[$July$,88],[$August$,71],[$September$,79],[$October$,84],[$November$,85],[$December$,83]]$ error, MSE. Which value of a appears to give the better forecast.