$12,91$

Develop forecasts for the next week $($period #$13)$ using a $4-$week moving average as well as simple exponential smoothing with $.$ For the simple exponential smoothing model, use the level at Period $0$ to be $L_0=106($the average demand over the $12$ weeks$).$ Evaluate the MAD, MAPE, MSE, bias, and TS at period #$12.$ Which of the two methods do you prefer? Why? $($Hints: You should start from period $4$ in calculating level, i$.$e$.,$ forecast for period $5.$ Please note that formulas for calculating measures of forecast errors, i$.$e$.,$ MAD, MAPE, MSE, bias, and TS$,$ have been provided in the spreadsheet.$)$