$12$ points

In linear trend forecasting, what is the primary disadvantage of using a 'best$-$fit line'?

It requires extensive historical data for accuracy.

It may overemphasize random variations in data.

Seasonal and cyclical variations are often softened.

It cannot be used for short$-$term forecasting.

$22$ points

Which of the following is used to describe the degree of error?

Forecast as a percent of actual demand

Regression

Exponential smoothing

Mean absolute deviation

Weighted moving average

$32$ points

What does the forecasting principle "Your forecast is most likely wrong" imply for supply chain management?

The necessity for complex forecasting models.

The superiority of qualitative forecasting methods.

The inherent uncertainty in prediction models.

The inherent inaccuracy and unpredictability of forecasts.

The importance of historical data in making accurate forecasts, as past data is more reliable.