1 2 Table 7-2 3 County Population A Parameter B C D E Value G [Range] 380,000 N 0.06 4 Fraction High Risk r 0.06 0.04 5 Low-Risk Vaccination Rate vl 0.05 0.03 11 Vaccine Effectivenss Rate 6 High-Risk Vaccination Rate 7 Adverse Reaction Rate 8 Low-Risk Mortality Rate 9 High-Risk Vaccination Rate 10 Herd Immunity Effect 12 Hours Lost 13 Infection rate 14 Fist-Year Epidemic Probability 15 Second-Year Epidemic Probability 16 Vaccine Dose Price 17 Overhead cost vh 0.6 alpha 0.03 ml 0.00005 mh theta 0.001 1 0.0005 0.5 0.4 0.01 0.000025 0.000075 0.002 1 0.08 0.07 0.8 0.05 e 0.75 0.65 0.85 t 24 18 30 i 0.25 0.2 0.3 p1 0.4 0.02 0.15 p2 0.2 q $9.00 0 $120,000 18 Opportunity Cost of Time W $12 19 Value of Life L $3,000,000 1,000,000 4,000,000 20 Discount Rate d $0 21 Number High-Risk Vaccinations 22 Number Low-Risk Vaccinations 23 Fraction Vaccinated 24 25 Table 7-3 26 The direct program costs 27 The costs of side effects Vh = vh*r*N 13,680 n = vl(1-r)N 17,860 "' = r*vh+vl*( $0 in Millions Ca C's 28 The epidemic's costs without the vaccin Ceny 29 The cost of the epidemic with the vaccin Cely 0.404 3.111 57.855 36.014 30 The expected costs of the epidemic with E[CV] 31 The expected costs of the epidemic with E[Cnv] 32 The expected net benefits E[NB] 33 22.036 29.754 7.718