1. A computer software company has compiled data on total monthly sales of its spreadsheet software for the first 6 months of the year as follows:

Month Total Sales (number of packages sold)

January 210

February 222

March 227

April 223

May 230

June 225

a. Determine forecasts for as many of the months of January through July that are possible using each of the following methods: (Assume you are starting at the end of January and calculate and revise the forecasts as new data is collected): Follow the procedures as they are demonstrated in the podcast

i. The Simple Nave period method

ii. A 3-point moving average

iii. Exponential smoothing with a = 0.65, assume the forecast for January was 215.

b. Calculate the MAD for each of the three methods in part a.

Which forecasting method appears to perform the best according to MAD?

c. Calculate the MSE for each of the three methods in part a.

Which forecasting method appears to perform the best according to MSE?