$1.$ Actual demand values $($in $$1,000)$ for the last three months are provided as follows:

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October

November

December

Demand $($$$1,000)$

$7$

$9$

$11$

What is the forecast value $($model generated value$)$ for January, using exponential smoothing method with alpha $=0\mathrm{.}7?$ Start your calculation by assuming the forecast value for month of October is same as the actual value for October. Show all work.

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$2.$ A company wants to use the tracking signal to monitor the forecast model accuracy. They use UCL $=+5$ and LCL $=-5$ as their limits$.$ Recent analysis shows that the tracking signals are consistently coming out as large negative numbers $(-1\mathrm{.}1,-2\mathrm{.}2,-3\mathrm{.}3,-4\mathrm{.}4,-5\mathrm{.}5).$ What is going on and what should they do$?$

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