Question: 1. Consider the data in the table below for monthly cereal sales ($000). Month sales ($000) January $1,212 February 1,321 March 1,278 April 1,341

1. Consider the data in the table below for monthly cereal sales ($000). Month sales ($000) January $1,212 February 1,321 March 1,278 April 1,341 May 1,257 June 1,287 July 1,189 August 1,111 September 1,145 October 1,150 November 1,298 December 1,331 Average $2,243.33 Input this data into an excel spreadsheet and do the following: a. Calculate a four-month moving average forecast. What is you forecast for month 13? b. Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing factor of 0.30 to calculate the forecast for month 13. Fit a simple regression model to the data in problem 1 above. What is your forecast for month 13. Consider data on Problem 1. Compute the MSE, the MAD, and the MAPE for: a. The four-month moving average forecast (from many through December). b. The exponential smoothing forecast (from March through December). For this data, is one forecasting method always better than the other on all these measures?

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