1. Data collected on the yearly demand for 50 pound bags of fertilizer at Greens Garden Supply are shown in the following table: Month Demand for Fertilizer (1000s of bags) 1 4 2 5 3 6 4 8 5 12 6 7 7 6 8 9 9 13 10 14 11 15 12 13

13 17

14 16

15 17 a. Develop a 3-period moving average to forecast sales b. Estimate demand with a weighted moving average in which sales in the most recent period are given a weight of 2 and sales in the other 2 periods are each given a weight of 1. c. Which method do you think is the best and why?

2. Sales of air conditioners have grown consistently over the years and the follow represents sales: Year Sales 1 525 2 550 3 600 4 615 5 680 6 710

7 810

8 825

9 900 a. The sales manager had predicted, before the business started, that year 1 sales would be 465 air conditioners. Using exponential smoothing with an alpha of .30, develop a forecast. b. Using smoothing constants of .6 and .9, develop forecasts for the sales of air conditioners. c. What effect did the smoothing constant have on the forecast for air conditioners. Which smoothing constant gives the most accurate forecast? d. Forecast year 10 using linear regression and the regression equation.

3. Evaluate the following data and present a solution with two different and effective forecasting methods.

Year	Quarter	Sales	X1 Time Period
2016	1	108	1
	2	127	2
	3	150	3
	4	141	4
2017	1	116	5
	2	135	6
	3	159	7
	4	152	8
2018	1	123	9
	2	143	10
	3	168	11
	4	175	12