1. Forecasting: Based on the demand data provided below answer the following questions:

Period	Month	Demand
1	Jan	20
2	Feb	21
3	Mar	23
4	Apr	25
5	May	28
6	Jun	31
7	Jul	30
8	Aug	32
9	Sep	37
10	Oct	36
11	Nov	39
12	Dec	42

a) Calculate the 3-month moving average for April through January (of the next year; i.e., period 13)

b) Compute the 5-month moving average for June through January (of the next year)

c) Calculate an exponentially smoothed forecast using = .30

d) Calculate an adjusted exponentially smoothed forecast using = .30 and = .40

e) Using MAD, which of the above four forecasts was the most accurate?

2. The Wall Street Mission uses volunteers to assemble care packages for needy families during the holiday season. The mission would like to organize the work as efficiently as possible. A list of tasks, task times, and precedence requirements follows:

TASK	PRECEDENCE	TIME (MINS)
A		6
B	A	3
C	B	7
D	B	5
E	C, D	4
F	E	5

The mission wants to a care package every 10 minutes. Draw the precedence diagram, balance the line, and calculate the efficiency. How many packages can be assembled in a four-hour period?

3. The Changs Bakery makes cakes for freezing and subsequent sale. The bakery, which operates five days a week, 52 weeks a year, can produce cakes at the rate of 116 cakes per day. The bakery sets up the cakeproduction operation and produces until a predetermined number (Q) has been produced. When not producing cakes, the bakery uses its personnel and facilities for producing other bakery items. The setup cost for a production run of cakes is $700. The cost of holding frozen cakes in storage is $9 per cake per year. The annual demand for frozen cakes, which is constant over time, is 6000 cakes. Determine the following:

1. Optimal production run quantity (Q)
2. Total annual inventory costs
3. Optimal number of production runs per year
4. Optimal cycle time (time between run starts)
5. Run length in working days