1. If the p-value in a hypothesis test equals 2.5%, this implies:

A. There is a 2.5% probability that the null hypothesis is true

B. There is a 2.5% probability that the null hypothesis is false

C. There is a 2.5% probability that the alternative hypothesis is true

D. There is a 2.5% probability that the alternative hypothesis is false

E. None of the above*

2. Which of the following is not an example of a seasonal effect:

A. Increased electricity consumption in summer due to air-conditioner usage

B. Movements in casual employment numbers in the lead-up to Christmas & New Year

C. The plunge in the uranium price following a nuclear accident in Japan*

D. Visitor numbers to the Victorian snowfields in winter

E. Stone-fruit harvesting activity levels

3. According to the Central Limit Theorem:

A. The shape of the underlying distribution of any variable will be normal provided the sample size is large

B. The variability of a distribution increases without limit as the sample size increases

C. All sampling distributions resemble the population distribution when the sample size is large

D. The sampling distribution of the mean is approximately normal for a large random sample*

E. All of the above

4. Seasonal adjustment of a time series involves:

A. Removing the influence of irregular components

B. Transforming the data by taking logarithms

C. Inserting oscillatory components to any observable trend

D. Standardising any obvious outliers in the data

E. Removing the influence of systematic calendar related effects*

5. The standard error of the estimate for a given linear regression model (SYX) is 27.9. This suggests that...

A. the regression model has an excellent fit

B. the regression model has a modest fit

C. the regression model has a good fit

D. the regression model has a poor fit

E. we cannot tell the fit of the model as we unable to compare the SYX to Y*

6. The owner of a fish market has determined that the weights of her blue cod are normally distributed, with a mean of 3.2 kg and standard deviation of 0.8 kg. If a sample of 16 fish is taken, what would the standard error of the mean weight equal?

A. 0.050

B. 0.800

C. 0.200*

D. 0.003

7. The width of a confidence interval (CI) estimate for a mean will be

A. Narrower for 99% CI than for a 95% CI

B. Narrower for 99% CI than for a 90% CI

C. Wider for a sample size of 100 than a sample size of 50

D. Narrower for a 90% CI than for a 95% CI*

8. A bank tests the null hypothesis that the mean age of the bank's mortgage holders is less than or equal to 45 years, versus an alternative that the mean age is greater than 45 years. They take a sample and calculate a p-value of 0.0202. If the same sample was used to test the opposite one-tailed test, what would be that test's p-value?

A. 0.9596

B. 0.0404

C. 0.9798*

D. 0.0202

9. If the p-value is less than in a two-tailed test,

A. No conclusion should be reached

B. A one-tailed test should be used

C. The null hypothesis should not be rejected

D. The null hypothesis should be rejected*

10. In a simple linear regression model, the intercept (b0) represents

A. Change in the estimated average Y per unit change in X.

B. The estimated value of Y when X = 0*

C. The predicted value of Y

D. The variation around the sample regression line

11. According to the Central Limit Theorem:

A. The shape of the underlying distribution of any variable will be normal provided the sample size is large

B. The variability of a distribution increases without limit as the sample size increases

C. All sampling distributions resemble the population distribution when the sample size is large

D. The sampling distribution of the mean is approximately normal for a large random sample*

E. All of the above

12. The sign for the alternative hypothesis in a lower tailed test is always

A. < *

B. >

C.

D. =

13. The annual multiplicative time series model does not possess a ____________ component

A. a seasonal*

B. a trend

C. an irregular

D. a cyclical

14. The method of moving avergaes is used

A. In regression analysis

B. To exponentiate a series

C. To plot a series

D. To smooth a series*