1. In order to decrease the responsiveness of a forecast made using the exponential smoothing technique, what can we try? Describe with regards to smoothing constant value. 2. While monitoring the forecast values of daily car rental contracts with average daily contract numbers of 50 contracts/day, the tracking signals are consistently coming out as large negative numbers (i.e., -5.5, -7.9, -6.8, -10.5). What should we do with the forecasting model? 3. Given the actual data on the left, what is the forecast for period 6, using a four-period weighted moving average with weights of .1, .2, .3 and .4 (greater weight towards more recent time)? 4. Actual demand for the last four months are as follows. month deman d Januar y 5 Februar y 7 Marc h 6 April 9 What is the forecast value (model generated value) for March, using exponential smoothing with Alpha = 0.1? Assume Fjanuary=Ajanuary 5. A motorcycle dealer in the Chicago area wants to be able to forecast accurately the demand for the motorcycle. From sales records, the dealer has accumulated the following data for the second half of 2000. Month Sales July 10 August 15 September 23 October 44 November 54 December 36 Compute a 4-month moving average forecast of demand for December 2000 and January 2001. 6. A fast-food restaurant chain is considering a store expansion program. The most important factor to consider is next two year's level of interest rate. It is estimated that there is a 30% chance that it goes up, a 50% chance that it stays same, and a 20% chance that it goes down. The strategies and corresponding expected payoffs (profit) are: Rate goes-up Rate stays same Rate goes-down (30%) (50%) (20%) Build 10 new places -$300,000 $50,000 $250,000 Build 5 new places -$150,000 $26,000 $80,000 Do nothing $70,000 0 $25,000 Draw a decision tree. Calculate expected value at every node. What should they do? 7. RGV Company just signed a contract to deliver products to three locations, and it is trying to decide where to put its new central warehouse. The three delivery locations are A, B, and C. The x, y coordinates for the delivery locations are as follows: Location A B C x coordinate 90 85 80 y coordinate 40 35 30 The total quantity to be delivered to each destination is: 400 to A, 150 to B, and 100 to C. Calculate the location (x and y coordinates) of the new warehouse using the Center of Gravity approach. 8. The following table provides tasks on an assembly line, along with their predecessors and task times. Task A B C D E F G Immediate Predecessor None None A, B B C D, E E Time (seconds) 45 30 48 20 10 20 40 Desired output is 75 units per hour, thus the cycle time is 48 seconds. Draw the network diagram. Balance the line (assign all tasks) using the longest task time rule. Calculate the efficiency