1. Objective probability 1 - MLB

Suppose the New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies are playing a best-of-three series. The first team to win two games is the winner of the series, and the series ends as soon as one team has won two games. The first game is played in New York, and the second game is in Philadelphia, and if necessary the third game is in New York. The probability that the Yankees win a game in their home park is 0.60. The probability that the Phillies win a game in their home park is 0.53. You can assume that the outcomes of the games are probabilistically independent. Find the probability that the Yankees win the series.

(Hint: Consider all three ways Yankees to win and add all three probability: a + b + c)

a. Yankees 1 (Yankees win first home game) x Yankees 2 (Yankees win game 2 in way) = 0.60 x (1-0.53)

b. Yankees 1 (Yankees win first home game) x Phillies (Phillies win home game) x Yankees 3 (Yankees win 3rd game) = ............

c. Phillies 1 (Phillies win the first away game) x Yankees 2 (win in away game) x Yankees 3 (win home game) = (1-0.60) x (1- 0.53) x 0.60

3. Subjective Probability - NCAA

Assume that you are recently hired by NCAA as a data analyst and commissioned to provide a future prediction about gender equity in college sport for Mr. Mark Emmert, President.

Step 1: Carefully read the report below to learn the current status of gender equity in the US college sport.

Women in Intercollegiate Sport

Actions

(or download from:https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED570882(Links to an external site.))

Step 2: A question given by Mr. Emmert: Will gender equity be improved or decreased in college sport?

Step 3: Provide a subjective probability that gender equity in this segment improve/decline (e.g., 90% chance) and to what degree (e.g. 10 percent growth) within next 5 years. Choose and address 2-3 factors or indicators to justify your prediction. Add a conclusion statement at the end.