1. Open the test file in JMP check 2. Do a time series plot of Sales2 by quarter (10 pts) check 3. What is the mean and std? (10 pts) check 4. Does the data appear to have a trend, a seasonality, or both? (10 pts) 5. Using Time Series Forecast, do a forecast and then tell me what the forecasted value is for 4 quarters into the future (e.g., quarter 24) (10 pts)check 67.5025 6. Do an simple exponential smoothing forecast and a seasonal exponential smoothing (10 pts)check 7. Which one is the better model? Explain by looking at MAPE and MAE. In your explanation describe those 2 terms and then explain how by looking at their values they can help you determine which one is the best model (20 pts) MAE is average magnitude of error produced by the model and MAPE is how far the models predictions are off from the outputs on average. I think that the Seasonal Exponential Smoothing is a better model its MAPE is almost half of the Simple Exponential Model and MAE values are a little over a quarter smaller. That being said these values for Seasonal Exponential Smoothing are better which makes this the better model. 8. What is the forecasted value for simple exponential model for Quarter 24? (10 pts) 117.91747791 9. What is the forecasted value for the seasonal exponential model for Quarter 24? (10 pts) 145.7825 10. Given what you know, which value do you believe is the better forecast? (10 pts) Given what I know so far from this I believe the better forecast is the Seasonal Exponential model, it makes a lot more sense with the values presented. A B C 1 Quarter NP 1 3 N 4 5 Sales2 1 20 26.65 3 36.8 4 50 5 31 6 42.51 7 60.8 8 6 7 8 9 80 9 10 11 10 11 12 13 14 15 42 57.07 75.2 98 51.2 70.2 91.2 119.8 62 84.5 109.12 142 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 1. Open the test file in JMP check 2. Do a time series plot of Sales2 by quarter (10 pts) check 3. What is the mean and std? (10 pts) check 4. Does the data appear to have a trend, a seasonality, or both? (10 pts) 5. Using Time Series Forecast, do a forecast and then tell me what the forecasted value is for 4 quarters into the future (e.g., quarter 24) (10 pts)check 67.5025 6. Do an simple exponential smoothing forecast and a seasonal exponential smoothing (10 pts)check 7. Which one is the better model? Explain by looking at MAPE and MAE. In your explanation describe those 2 terms and then explain how by looking at their values they can help you determine which one is the best model (20 pts) MAE is average magnitude of error produced by the model and MAPE is how far the models predictions are off from the outputs on average. I think that the Seasonal Exponential Smoothing is a better model its MAPE is almost half of the Simple Exponential Model and MAE values are a little over a quarter smaller. That being said these values for Seasonal Exponential Smoothing are better which makes this the better model. 8. What is the forecasted value for simple exponential model for Quarter 24? (10 pts) 117.91747791 9. What is the forecasted value for the seasonal exponential model for Quarter 24? (10 pts) 145.7825 10. Given what you know, which value do you believe is the better forecast? (10 pts) Given what I know so far from this I believe the better forecast is the Seasonal Exponential model, it makes a lot more sense with the values presented. A B C 1 Quarter NP 1 3 N 4 5 Sales2 1 20 26.65 3 36.8 4 50 5 31 6 42.51 7 60.8 8 6 7 8 9 80 9 10 11 10 11 12 13 14 15 42 57.07 75.2 98 51.2 70.2 91.2 119.8 62 84.5 109.12 142 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24