1. Overview: After qualitative risk analysis of project risks, quantitative risk analysis is used for risk of high priority (either high threat or opportunity risks). This assignment focuses on some common quantitative risk analysis tools/ techniques. Decision Tree Analysis is one of the tools and techniques of quantitative risk analysis. Decision trees use Expected Monetary Value (EMV) which is another tool/ technique of quantitative risk analysis. Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is another tool which uses estimation to complete quantitative risk analysis. Remember: The Impact used in EMV is in days or dollars. PERT is a particular type of 3-point estimation, where the Most Likely estimate is weighted 4 times the optimistic or pessimistic estimates. All 3 estimates are used to calculate PERT. Below are exercises in both decision tree analysis and PERT estimation. Instructions for Exercise 1 and Exercise 2: Exercise 1 Scenario: You are the project manager on a project and you are developing the project schedule, this includes estimating the duration of activities for the project. You ask one of your team members how long it will take them to complete development of a feature in a web application. You want to provide the best numerical estimate possible so you employ the tool/ technique of PERT estimation. Your team member provides the following estimates for this activity: Optimistic= 5 days Pessimistic= 20 days Most Likely= 12 days Be sure to answer the following: What is the equation used for the PERT estimate? What is the PERT estimate for this activity?