$1.$ Prepare Your Data

Define the following variables in a new Excel sheet:

Initial Investment: $$300$

Monthly Profit $($High Demand$)$: $$150$

Monthly Profit $($Medium Demand$)$: $$100$

Monthly Profit $($Low Demand$)$: $$50$

Probability of High Demand: $50\%$

Probability of Medium Demand: $30\%$

Probability of Low Demand: $20\%$

$2.$ Build the Decision Tree

Start with a decision node: "Add Cookies" or $"$Do Not Add Cookies."

Add chance nodes for "High Demand," "Medium Demand," and "Low Demand" under the "Add Cookies" decision. Input the respective probabilities and profits.

$3.$ Analyze the Tree

Configure ASP to analyze the decision tree. Calculate the expected monetary value $($EMV$)$ for each decision path.

$4.$ Submit Your Analysis

Provide the Excel file containing your decision tree and a written analysis of the results using the dropbox link below. $($See the Submit section$).$

Discuss the statistical recommendation based on EMV and potential risks or variables that could influence the decision.