1)

SIR Matrix model:

S->I = 0.1

I->R = 0.45

R->S = 0.75

I->D = 0.05

a) Make a list of the transition probabilities present in the state diagram, using

the standard p xy = z format.

(b) Transfer the state diagram to a matrix in a spreadsheet.

(c) In the spreadsheet generate a numerical projection of a population that is

newly infected with the disease from time = 0 until time = 20 years. Assume

the whole population starts in the S state. The projection should show the

proportion of the population in each state for 20 years. You should also

calculate the year-to-year changes in each state by dividing the proportions in

year t by those in year t-1 for t = 1,2,...20.