$1.)$The historical sales for a certain model of a single serve coffee maker at a specialty cookware store in units is: January, $26$; February, $20$; March, $15$; April, $26$; May, $19,$ and June, $15.$ Using a $2-$month moving average, what is the forecast for July? Round your answer to the nearest whole number.

July forecast:

If July experienced a demand of $17,$ what is the forecast for August? Round your answer to the nearest whole number.

August forecast:

$2.)$The historical sales for a certain model of a single serve coffee maker at a specialty cookware store in units is: January, $26$; February, $21$; March, $17$; April, $23$; May, $16,$ and June, $25.$ Use single exponential smoothing with $\backslash$alpha $=0\mathrm{.}2,$ and compute the exponential smoothing forecasts for February through June. Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to two decimal places.

$3.)$Forecasts and actual sales of MP$3$ players at Just Say Music are as follows:

Month Forecast Actual Sales

March $170160$

April $243254$

May $209197$

June $244226$

July $252223$

August $270210$

September $245215$

October $276176$

What is the forecast for November, using a two$-$period moving average? Round your answer to two decimal places.

What is the forecast for November, using a three$-$period moving average? Round your answer to two decimal places.

Compute MSE for the two$-$ and three$-$period moving average models and compare your results. Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to two decimal places.

MSE $($two$-$period$)$:

MSE $($three$-$period$)$:

Find the best number of periods for the moving average model based on MSE.

The moving average is a better model.