1. Using POM / OM tool, Develop a forecasting model, justifying its selection over other forecasting techniques, and project attendance through the 20182019 season.

2. What revenues are to be expected in the 20172018 and 20182019 seasons?

3. Discuss options

Fast Creek is a city in south central Saskatchewan located along the Trans-Canada Highway. Fast Creek has a population of just over 27 000 residents and is a regional hub for the many smaller towns and hundreds of farms in the surrounding area. Fast Creek is a transportation and industrial centre, and has several federal and provincial government offices. Fast Creek is also a sports centre, and its junior hockey team, the Fast Creek Lightning, has a long history of success in the Central Hockey League but has not won a major trophy in close to 10 years. Since the legendary Scotty Beauchamp was hired as head coach in 2011 (in the hopes of winning the elusive league and national championship), total attendance at home games for each month has increased. Prior to Beauchamps arrival, attendance averaged 25 000 to 29 000 per month (or between 5000 and 5800 tickets for each of the five home games per month). Season ticket sales bumped up by almost 2000 just with the announcement of the new coachs arrival. The Fast Creek Lightning are ready to move to the big time! The immediate issue facing the Lightning, however, is not the championship. It is capacity. The existing Fast Creek arena, built in 1953, has seating for 10 800 fans. The following table indicates total home game attendance each month of the season for the past six years. One of Beauchamps demands on joining the Lightning had been a new arena. With attendance increasing, Lightning executives and city officials have begun to face the issue head-on. Beauchamp would like a state-of-the-art training facility solely for his players as an additional feature of any expansion. The Lightnings owner, Keith MacLennan, has decided it is time for his vice-president of development to forecast when the existing arena will max out. The expansion is, in his mind, a given. But MacLennan needs to know how long he could wait. He also seeks a revenue projection, assuming an average ticket price of $50 in 20172018 and a 5% increase each season in future prices.

Period Demand

Nov-11 34200 Dec-11 39800 Jan-12 38200 Feb-12 26900 Mar-12 35100

Nov-12 36100 Dec-12 40200 Jan-13 39100 Feb-13 25300 Mar-13 36200

Nov-13 35900 Dec-13 46500 Jan-14 43100 Feb-14 27900 Mar-14 39200

Nov-14 41900 Dec-14 46100 Jan-15 43900 Feb-15 30100 Mar-15 40500

Nov-15 42500 Dec-15 48200 Jan-16 44200 Feb-16 33900 Mar-16 47800

Nov-16 46900 Dec-16 50100 Jan-17 45900 Feb-17 36300 Mar-17 49900