1. What observations can you make about the demand pattern, just from looking at it? Do you see any patterns?

2. Is this forecast accurate? Is it biased? How did you draw this conclusion?

G Demand a go 1234 sc8s0HQBUBBHB88 19 21 ON N 00 O ON Nave Forecast 2 150 B Period Demand Forecast Error Abs % Error Squared Error 82 5 63 82 -19 0.30 361 125 5 81 63 18 0.22 324 82 81 1 0.01 1 100 3 77 82 -5 0.06 25 92 77 15 0.16 225 0 90 92 -2 0.02 4 75 1 61 90 -29 0.48 841 2 62 61 1 0.02 1 50 3 10 53 62 -9 0.17 81 4 11 53 53 0 0.00 0 5 12 69 53 16 25 0.23 256 1 13 3 6 5 7 10 9 13 79 15 69 11 0.13 100 17 7 14 56 79 -23 0.41 529 Time 8 15 60 56 4 0.07 16 9 16 93 60 33 -Demand Forecast 0.35 1089 0 17 99 93 6 0.06 36 1 18 82 99 -17 0.21 289 2 19 56 82 -26 0.46 676 3 20 94 56 38 0.40 1444 4 5 6 7 ME: 0.63 8 MSE: 331.4737 9 MAPE: 19.87% 0 U: 1 2 3 4 1. What observations can you make about the demand pattern, just from looking at it? Do you see any patterns? 5 6 7 8 2. Is this forecast accurate? Is it biased? How did you draw this conclusion? 9 0 1 2 3. Provide an interpretation for the MAPE. What does it mean in words? 3. A forecast system's accuracy is measured by the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). It is determined as the average absolute percent error for each time 4 period minus actual values divided by real values, and it is expressed as a percentage. 5 6