1. Your manager is trying to determine what forecasting method to use. Based upon the following historical data, calculate the following forecast and specify what procedure you would utilize Month Actual Demand Month Actual Demand 1 62 7 76 2 65 B 78 3 67 78 4 68 10 80 5 71 11 84 6 73 12 85 Calculate the simple three-month moving average forecast for periods 4-12. Calculate the weighted three-month moving average using weights of 0.50, 0.30, and 0.20 for periods 4- 12 c) Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecast for periods 2-12 using an initial forecast (F, ) of 61 and a of 0.30 d) Calculate the exponential smoothing with trend component forecast for periods 2-12 using an initial trend forecast (T.) of 1.8. and initial exponential smoothing forecast (F,) of 60. an a of 0.30 and a $ of 0.30 Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the forecasts made by each technique in periods 4-12. Which forecasting method do you prefer? 2. Historical demand for a product is as follows: Demand April 55 May 70 June 75 July 65 August 85 September 80 Using a simple four-month moving average, calculate a forecast for October bj Using single exponential smoothing with a = 0.2 and a September forecast = 65, calculate a forecast for October. Using simple linear regression, calculate the trend line for the historical data. Say the X axis is April = 1. May = 2, and so on, while the Y axis is demand. d) Calculate a forecast for October with the trend line obtained in question c)