Question: 1234 A B C D E F Trance Electronics Data 5 Market size 6 Unit (monthly Rx) revenue 7 Unit (monthly Rx) cost 8

1234 A B C D E F Trance Electronics Data 5 Market size 6 Unit (monthly Rx) revenue 7 Unit (monthly Rx) cost 8 Discount rate 9 10 Project costs 11 R&D 12 Clinical Trials 13 Total Project Costs 14 20,000,000 $ 120.00 $ 50.00 8% $750,000,000 $ 100,000,000 27 28 29 FOTO 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 15 Model 16 17 Year 1 2 3 4 5 18 Market growth factor 4% 4% 4% 4% 19 Market size 20 Market share growth rate 18% 18% 18% 18% 21 Market share 7% 22 Sales 23 24 Annual revenue 25 Annual costs 26 Profit Cumulative net profit Net present value A spreadsheet for Trance Electronics is provided. Suppose that the project manager of Trance Electronics has identified several uncertain variables in the model and the distributions and parameters that describe them. Market size: normal with mean of 20,000,000 units and standard deviation of 4,000,000 units R&D costs: uniform between $600,000,000 and $800,000,000 Clinical trial costs: lognormal with mean of $150,000,000 and standard deviation $30,000,000 Annual market growth factor: triangular with minimum = 2%, maximum = 6%, and most likely = 3% Annual market share growth rate: triangular with minimum = 15%, maximum = 25%, and most likely = 20% The number of trials per simulation is equal to 10,000 at a Sim. Random Seed of 2. Run the simulation using the Risk Solver Platform. What is the expected loss ratio obtained from the simulation results of the net present value? Round to two decimal places. Click the icon to view the spreadsheet. O A. 93.50% B. 67.32% C. 86.32% OD. 72.45%
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