1.The forecasting method that is appropriate when the time series has no significant trend, cyclical, or seasonal effect is

A. mean squared error

B. qualitative forecasting methods

C. mean average deviation

D. moving averages

2. Given an actual demand of 103, a previous forecast value of 99, and an alpha of .4, the exponential smoothing forecast for the next period would be

A. 103.0

B. 100.6

C. 101.6

D. 97.4

E. 94.6

3. The two general approaches to forecasting are

A. mathematical and statistical

B. qualitative and quantitative

C. judgmental and associative

D. judgmental and qualitative

E. historical and associative

4.Johns House of Pancakes uses a weighted moving average method to forecast pancake sales. It assigns a weight of 5 to the previous months demand, 3 to demand two months ago, and 1 to demand three months ago. If sales amounted to 1000 pancakes in May, 2200 pancakes in June, and 3000 pancakes in July, what should be the forecast for August?(Hint: the weights should add up to 1)

A. 3767

B. 2511

C. 1622

D. 2400

E. 2067

5.Which is an advantage of exponential smoothing compared to moving average method applied to time series data?

A. smoothes random variations in the data

B. weights each historical value equally

C. gives better forecasts

D. requires only last period's forecast and actual data

6.Forecasts

A. are rarely perfect

B. become more accurate with longer time horizons

C. none of the choices are correct

D. all of the choices are correct

E. are more accurate for individual items than for groups of items

7. In order to increase the responsiveness of a forecast made using the moving average technique, the number of data points in the average should be:

A. multiplied by a smaller alpha

B. increased

C. decreased

D. multiplied by a larger alpha

8. The primary purpose of the mean absolute deviation (MAD) in forecasting is to

A. seasonally adjust the forecast

B. estimate forecast error

C. estimate the trend line

D. all the choices are correct

E. measure forecast accuracy

9. Given forecast errors of -1, 4, 8, and -3, what is the mean absolute deviation?

A. 8

B. 4

C. 16

D. 3

E. 2

10.Which of the following is not a type of qualitative forecasting?

A. executive opinions

B. sales force composites

C. the Delphi method

D. moving average

E. consumer surveys